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Tugby's Tips: Cardiff v Palace

3 April 2014

Former bookmaker and Palace Programme editor Luke Tugby talks us through his betting tips ahead of Saturday’s trip to Cardiff City. 

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Crystal Palace travel to Cardiff City this weekend looking to build on Saturday’s memorable win over Chelsea. The Eagles are 11/5 to record another invaluable victory, although SkyBet make Cardiff their favourites at 5/4. The draw is available at 9/4.

And it would be the latter of those three options that turns my head the most. The Bluebirds have picked up a little bit of momentum at home, losing two of their last five at the Cardiff City Stadium, and have scored exactly three goals in three of their last four Premier League outings. 

With those statistics in mind, Tony Pulis would probably take a point, which would maintain Palace’s five-point lead over their relegation rivals. A 0-0 stalemate is available at 15/2 with SkyBet, while they go 9/2 on a 1-1 draw. 

Palace have won twice on the road this season, with both victories coming by a 1-0 scoreline. You’ll be rewarded with odds of 15/2 if you fancy the Eagles to grab another single-goal win away from SE25. 

The under/over 2.5 goals market offers some interesting reading. Palace’s last six games have all contained fewer than 2.5 goals, while five of Cardiff’s last six have seen more than 2.5 goals scored. It’s 4/6 that Palace’s run is stretched to seven games, but you can get a pretty tempting 11/10 on more than 2.5 goals being scored on Saturday.

If that is to be the case, there are a few likely protagonists in the first goalscorer market. The Eagles required a John Terry own goal to down Chelsea last weekend, but Cameron Jerome came within inches of making it 2-0 when his shot rattled the post. 

Jerome’s only Premier League goal of the season so far came against his former club Cardiff – and the on loan Stoke forward is 11/4 to repeat that feat this weekend by scoring against them again in 90 minutes, or 8/1 to bag the first goal of the game.  

Glenn Murray scored a hat-trick against the Bluebirds last season and he is also available at 8/1 to open, or indeed finish the scoring, while it’s 100/1 for him to bag another treble.

Meanwhile, Jason Puncheon (11/1) and Joe Ledley (14/1) both look good value bets to net the first goal from midfield, with Fraizer Campbell (11/2) and Kenwyne Jones (6/1) leading the betting for the home side.

Whoever gets the goals, I can’t see them coming too early in the game. Palace have done well in terms of keeping it tight on the road, bringing back a clean sheet from Sunderland and losing only to a stoppage time goal at Newcastle.

I fancy a tight opening hour in Cardiff and if that comes to fruition, you could make a healthy profit in the time of the 1st goal market. It’s 12/1 for it to come between 61 and 70 minutes, 18s between 71 and 80, and the same price from 81 minutes onwards. 

Tugby’s Tip of the Day: I can’t see past the draw, which will more than treble your money at 9/4.
Value Bet of the Day: Cameron Jerome to get the first goal of the game at 8/1. He hasn’t been prolific for Palace, but he caused havoc against Chelsea and will fancy himself to net against his former club for the second time this season.

Long Shot of the Day: Glenn Murray bagged a hat-trick against Cardiff in a 3-2 Palace win last season. He’s 100/1 to net another treble this weekend.

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