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Tugby's Tips: Palace v Aston Villa

10 April 2014


Former bookmaker and Palace Programme editor Luke Tugby talks us through his betting tips ahead of Saturday’s clash with Aston Villa. 

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Crystal Palace welcome Aston Villa to Selhurst Park this weekend as they look to bag what would be a third consecutive top flight win for the first time since December 1992. 

The Eagles are better than even money at 11/10 with SkyBet to achieve that feat. Villa are 11/4 to add another away win to their impressive record on the road, while the draw is available at 21/10. 

That’s the eventuality I went for as I sat on the fence ahead of the Cardiff City game last weekend, but following that 3-0 demolition of the Bluebirds, I really fancy Palace to continue their winning streak on Saturday against Paul Lambert’s out-of-sorts side, who have lost their last three on the spin.

Tony Pulis’ men have won six Premier League games by a 1-0 scoreline since he took charge in November – and they are 5/1 to add another one-goal victory to that list at the weekend, while a third consecutive victory without conceding can be had at 9/4. 

Palace will be high on confidence after that 3-0 triumph in south Wales though and I fancy them to score more than once come Saturday afternoon. SkyBet offer 15/2 on a 2-0 win, while another 3-0 victory is available at 18s. Considering Villa have shipped 10 goals in their last three games, that represents pretty decent value. 

The Villans have found the net in each of their last five games though, so the evens on both teams to score appeals – as does the 7/2 on Palace to win, with both teams to score. 

The usual suspects head up the first goalscorer market for the Eagles, with Glenn Murray the 11/2 favourite, ahead of Maourane Chamakh (6/1), Cameron Jerome (7/1) and Jason Puncheon (8/1). The latter bagged a memorable brace at Cardiff last time out and is 16/1 to pull off another two-goal salvo. 

Grant Holt leads that market for the visitors at 8/1 and he’ll be keen to continue where he left off against Fulham as he steps into the shoes of Christian Beneteke up front.     

Villa’s best chance of a goal could come from set pieces though and Leandro Bacuna has already bagged a couple of stunning free kicks this season. His odds of 16/1 to score first or 11/2 to net at any time look relatively tempting - if you can bring yourself to bet against the Palace!

Tugby's Tip of the Day: I can't see past a Palace win today. At 11/10, it will more than double your money or make a decent booster to your accumulator.

Value Bet of the Day: Palace to win 3-0 at 18/1. Considering Villa have conceded 10 in their last three games, that price looks slightly inflated to me.

Long Shot of the Day: Jason Puncheon bagged a brace at Cardiff last time out - and he's 100/1 to go one better with a hat-trick this weekend.

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