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Tugby's Tips: Palace v Southampton

7 March 2014

Former bookmaker and Palace Programme editor Luke Tugby talks us through his betting tips ahead of Saturday’s clash with Southampton. 

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Crystal Palace come into Saturday’s game with Southampton off the back of a valuable point away at Swansea City last time out and Tony Pulis’ men are 13/5 to follow that up with victory against the Saints.

Mauricio Pochettino’s visitors are the favourites to take all three points though at 21/20, with the draw available at 9/4. 

But for me, those odds don’t quite stack up with current form. Southampton have lost their last three games in all competitions, while they have only tasted victory three times on the road since mid-September, with those wins coming at Cardiff, Fulham and Hull. 

Palace meanwhile have turned Selhurst Park into a very difficult place to come since the start of December last year – losing just two of the eight games that Tony Pulis has taken charge of in SE25. 

With the south coast side having also had 13 first-team stars away on international duty on Wednesday, I would be very tempted to lay them this weekend. Palace are available on the double chance market at 4/6 to register either a win or a draw on Saturday. 

If the Eagles are to pick up another vital victory, the goal burden could fall largely on Glenn Murray and Tom Ince, if top scorer Marouane Chamakh fails a late fitness test on his hamstring injury. Murray – buoyed by his first Premier League goal at Swansea last time out – is 13/2 to break the deadlock or 2/1 to score in 90 minutes, while Ince is 15/2 to score first and 5/2 to find the net at any time. 

Jason Puncheon will no doubt be keen to rediscover the scoring form he found at the start of the year and he is available at 7/2 to score at any time against his former employers. 

Southampton’s main goal-getters come in the form of England international duo Rickie Lambert and Jay Rodriguez – with the latter becoming somewhat of a specialist at finding the net away from home. Seven of his 10 Premier League goals this season have come on the road and he is 6/4 to add to that tally on Saturday. 

Whoever gets the goals, I can’t see there being too many of them throughout the 90 minutes. Only four of Palace’s home games this season have garnered more than 2.5 goals – and SkyBet offer 4/7 that the Selhurst Park faithful will see under 2.5 goals again on Saturday.

I like the look of the double on Palace to win, with under 2.5 goals scored in the match. That is available at a fairly generous 5/1. If you fancy the net to bulge on a few more occasions though, over 2.5 goals returns better than even money at 5/4. 

That was the case the last time these two sides met at Selhurst in the Premier League, when they fought out a 2-2 thriller. It’s 16/1 for that scoreline to repeat itself today. 

Tugby’s Tip of the Day: Palace to win with under 2.5 goals scored in the match. A decent bet at 5/1. 

Value Bet of the Day: How many times do you see players scoring against their old clubs? Jason Puncheon looks a little over-priced at 7/2 to achieve that feat this weekend.

Long Shot of the Day: Joel Ward has yet to score for Palace, but he does have previous against the Saints. The former Portsmouth man is 25/1 to net the first goal on Saturday.

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