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Tugby's Tips: Newcastle v Palace

20 March 2014

Former bookmaker and Palace Programme editor Luke Tugby talks us through his betting tips ahead of Saturday’s clash with Newcastle United. 

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Crystal Palace travel to the north east for the second successive weekend ahead of Saturday's game against Newcastle - and the bookies feel the Eagles have a chance of returning to south London with all three points. 

Palace are 100/30 to secure what would be their third away Premier League win of the season, while the Magpies are 10/11 to claim victory. The draw is available at 9/4.    

Those odds may have been evened out by the fact that Alan Pardew will be absent from the home dugout - and, indeed, St James' Park entirely - for the match, following his seven game ban for head-butting Hull City's David Meyler. That seemed to effect his side last week as they were beaten by Fulham - and Palace will fancy their chances of inflicting more misery on the Toon Army come Saturday.

Newcastle have struggled for goals of late, drawing blanks in seven of the 10 Premier League games they have played in since the turn of the year. With Loic Remy ruled out and Luuk de Jong yet to score for the club since signing on loan in January, those are positive signs indeed for the Eagles.

Tony Pulis' men are 9/1 to record a 1-0 victory - the same scoreline that has seen them win on the road at Hull and Aston Villa already this season, while SkyBet offer 15/2 on a second consecutive 0-0 draw in the north east. 
Both of those 1-0 away victories have come via late second half goals after tight first halves, and I fancy a similar scenario this weekend at St James' Park. The Draw/Crystal Palace selection on the half-time/full-time market looks good value to me at 8/1.

If Palace are to inflict what would be a 10th defeat on Newcastle in their last 13 games in all competitions, the goal burden will lie heavily on Glenn Murray with Marouane Chamakh out injured and Dwight Gayle doubtful. Murray is 13/2 to score the first goal of the game and 2/1 to find the net in 90 minutes.  

Jason Puncheon has scored some vital goals for the Eagles in 2014 and the winger is 7/2 to add to his tally at any time on Saturday, or a very reasonable 10/1 to score the first goal. 

Newcastle's main goal threats come in the form of the aforementioned de Jong (5/1 to score first), who is yet to open his Newcastle account after six appearances, while Papiss Cisse (6/1 to score first) has just one Premier League goal to his name all season.  

With the Magpies' current run of form, lack of goals and absence of a managerial presence on the touchline, I'm confident Palace can come away from St James' Park with a result this weekend. They are 5/6 to avoid defeat and 6/1 to win the game to nil - both of which appeal.  

Tugby’s Tip of the Day: It may not make you rich, but Palace to draw or win at 5/6 would almost double your money - or make a decent addition to your weekend acca. 

Value Bet of the Day: Two stand out for me - the 9/1 on a 1-0 Palace win, and the 8/1 on Draw HT/Palace FT. Both look slightly overpriced and decent value to me, so take your pick!

Long Shot of the Day: Glenn Murray returns to his north east roots again this weekend and is 66/1 to mark the occasion with a hat-trick. Worth a quid or two, perhaps?

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