'Cohesive and confident football': An analysis from Palace's European journey

*Please note that the views and opinions expressed in this article are those of Pat Rosanio, and do not necessarily reflect the views and opinions of Crystal Palace F.C.

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375 days before the 2026 UEFA Conference League Final, Crystal Palace experienced sporting euphoria.

The Eagles won the 2025 FA Cup - their first major trophy in the club history – and the Palace faithful reacted accordingly.

Whether inside Wembley Stadium, elsewhere in London, or even in sunny Florida, there were celebrations through tears, emotions, and a general state of disbelief.

Supporters understood the brevity of the moment, knowing not to take it for granted – a moment like this might never happen again. Now, just over a year later, it’s happened again.

Palace will look to win an unprecedented second knockout cup competition in as many seasons, as they face Rayo Vallecano in the Conference League Final.

Up to nine starters from last season’s FA Cup triumph will be in the Starting XI when the Eagles kick-off in Leipzig. These players possess the chemistry, experience, and mentality to raise the trophy. Using the numbers, it is possible to reflect on Palace’s European campaign and see how they got here.

RESOLUTE DEFENDING

Oliver Glasner’s side are known for their strong defensive record, and this has rung true throughout Conference League.

Since the League Phase began, Palace rank 6th (of 36 clubs) in goals allowed per match, conceding an average of just 0.86.

Glasner’s team has done this by limiting opponents’ shot quantity and quality. Crystal Palace have held opponents to just 8.4 shots per match – best in the competition.

When opponents can get a shot off, it is rarely one with a high probability of scoring. Palace rank seventh with 0.1 NPxG/shot conceded ('non-penalty expected goals per shot conceded').

In layman’s terms, this means that their average shot faced has only a 10% chance of beating the keeper.

Limiting shot quantity and quality also coincides directly with Palace’s stellar expected goals allowed (xGA) record.

Palace rank second in the UEFA Conference League on this measure, conceding an average of just 0.82 xG per match – earning five clean sheets along the way.

In eight of their 14 matches so far, Palace held their opponent to under 0.5 xG for the entire match.

SENSATIONAL SARR

Across all competitions, Palace have created chances and generated high xG, yet have often squandered these opportunities.

In the Conference League, Palace rank second for xG generated per match (2.24) but have underperformed in converting that to actual goals, scoring just 1.8 per match.

This number is still high – it ranks 4th in the competition – but it highlights Palace’s wastefulness in front of goal. Thankfully, Ismaila Sarr has been handling the goal conversion for the Eagles.

The Senegalese forward leads Conference League with nine goals – a number that constitutes more than one-third of all Palace goals in the competition.

Furthermore, Sarr is scoring with supreme clinical ability. Scoring nine from 7.98 xG, Sarr is the only Palace player to outperform his xG metrics.

As a club, Palace have only converted 80% of total xG to goals. This number would be even lower if not for Sarr, who has converted nearly 113% of xG.

EXPECTED GOAL DIFFERENCE (xGD): The “Gold Standard”

Plotting xG (quality of chances created) against xGA (quality of chances conceded) is a simple and effective method of assessing performance.

This metric is known as Expected Goal Difference (xGD), and Palace’s xGD is highest in the competition. Level of opponent did not play much of an effect, as Palace’s xGD against knockout sides only (1.29) would still rank first in conference league.

Expected goal difference shows that Palace played well when they didn’t win. The Eagles’ xGD in draws, yet again, tops the league. Even in losses, Palace rank 8th, proving that their issue was not chance generation, but finishing.

Should the Eagles continue to create and finish their own chances while limiting their opponents, the chances of winning are high. To do so, they need to play composed, cohesive, and confident football.

Another trophy, another European competition (and the away days that go along with it!), and another chance to show the world what Palace is all about.

I believe we can take that chance.

2026 UEFA Conference League Final

Crystal Palace v Rayo Vallecano

• Wednesday, 27th May
• 20:00 BST UK time / 21:00 CEST local time
• Leipzig Stadium, Germany
• Live audio commentary on Palace TV+
• Visit our Conference League Final Hub