Sports scientist-turned-hobbyist analyst Pat Rosanio – better known by fans as @CPFC_Tampa – has been breaking down Crystal Palace games on social media for a number of years, having previously worked in Major League Baseball with the Toronto Blue Jays.
Ahead of the FA Cup Final on Saturday, Pat takes a look at how he anticipates the game could unfold from a tactical perspective…
For more tactical analysis, follow Tampa Palace on BlueSky.
*Please note that the views and opinions expressed in this article are those of Pat Rosanio, and do not necessarily reflect the views and opinions of Crystal Palace F.C.
On Saturday, at 16:30 local time, Crystal Palace Football Club will look to earn their first ever “major” trophy – with apologies to the 1990-91 Zenith Data Systems Cup – when they kick off against Manchester City in the 2025 FA Cup Final.
The preparation, passion, and unwavering support from local Palace fans will be on full display as they look to complete a Red and Blue Takeover and make Wembley Stadium their celebration hub.
At that same moment, albeit at 11:30 local time, a small (but growing!) group of Palace supporters will be gathering at MacDinton’s Irish Pub in Tampa, Florida to cheer on boys from South-East London. While not rare, these mee-tups show the magnitude of this match.
Whether one was lucky enough to secure a ticket, will be watching locally, or will be anxiously engaged from thousands of miles away, this match could be momentous in the history of Crystal Palace Football Club.
Let’s take a deep dive into how each squad may line up, potential tactics to deploy, and what each side needs to do to raise the trophy at full time...
Manchester City’s starting line-up could be a bit more difficult to predict. They have quality in depth at every position and now have a healthy Erling Haaland ready for selection.
What we do know, however, is how they will play. Manchester City will look to dominate possession and keep the match in their opponent’s defensive third. They will attempt to create confusion and pull defences out of sorts with their quick passing, constantly searching for high-probability shots.
The style of play without Haaland has been more fluid – owing to Omar Marmoush’s affinity to drift wide. With Haaland on the pitch, he acts as a focal point of sorts for the attack, as he stays in the box while his teammates rotate around him looking to generate chances.
This is a true “pick your poison” scenario regarding Haaland playing. You have one of the best goal scorers on the planet coming back into a side. However, his presence limits a lot of the positional fluidity that gave Palace so many problems in their last meeting.
You could make the argument that an organised defensive side such as Palace would take their chances with more positional rigidity, but that’s a tough ask when talking about Erling Haaland!
When looking at “end result” data, there are quite a few similarities between these two clubs.
Manchester City boast the fifth-best defence in the Premier League, conceding 43 goals this season, while Palace’s 48 goals conceded are good for ninth. When it comes to generating quality chances (shown via NPxG data), Man City and Palace are third & seventh, respectively, in the league.
However, the two sides’ preferred methods to achieving these end results could not be any more different.
Manchester City are methodical, expansive, and imposing. Their goal is to control the narrative of the match by keeping possession and dictating where on the pitch the match is played.
On the other hand, Palace are organised and direct. They trust their defensive abilities, communicate well, and wait for their moments to hit swiftly and vertically with lethal counter attacks.
On paper, any attacking metric is skewed heavily toward Manchester City. However, this is a bit of an unfair comparison as it does not account for time of possession. Manchester City nearly average double the possession of Palace, so of course they’re going to have a higher quantity of metrics per 90 minutes!
What’s the best way to balance this? By viewing metrics which are adjusted for possession. When altered to represented metrics per 90 minutes of possession (and not just match time), we get a much more accurate and informative picture.
When in possession, Palace do not waste time attacking.
On a per-minute basis, they are near the top of the league in shot-creating actions, through balls, and shots. Believe it or not, the Eagles generate more attacking actions per minute of possession than their upcoming opponents.
The complete juxtaposition of backward passes further exemplifies the contrast in styles from slow and methodical (Manchester City) to fast and direct (Palace).
As these two sides play with such vastly different tactics, it is fair to suggest that whoever can best impose their style the match will come out victorious.
From a Palace perspective, this means finding the proper balance when defending. Too aggressive, and they risk making mistakes that Manchester City will exploit. Too passive, and they risk exposing themselves to the creative talent on show at the Etihad in April.
But Palace stick to their fast and direct gameplan, they can exploit some of Manchester City’s defensive weaknesses.
This iteration of Manchester City is not a strong-tackling side. In fact, they sit 10th in the Premier League in tackle win rate and 18th in tackle rate against dribblers. They also are prone to a mistake, as they sit 15th in defensive errors leading to a shot.
By quickly playing progressive vertical passes after winning back possession, Palace could look to elicit defensive errors which create opportunities for chances.
Defensively, Crystal Palace must trust themselves. They have recorded the fewest errors leading to shots in the Premier League.
Oliver Glasner has them well-drilled and organised. They mustn’t fear the talent of Man City, or they could fall right into Pep Guardiola’s hands.
From a Manchester City perspective, they must look to control the pace and limit transitional moments. If this becomes a match of short passing in the Palace defensive third, the advantage will edge heavily toward the men from Manchester.
Defensively, Manchester City will look to limit Palace’s deadly counters by quickly implementing a counter-press whenever the ball is lost. If not effective, look for City players to commit some strategic fouls to slow down the match and limit the Eagles getting out into space where they are most dangerous.
From our vantage point at MacDinton’s in Tampa, the best way this match plays out is with an early Crystal Palace goal. This would force the opponent into pushing further up and creating even more space to exploit behind.
If this sounds like the most recent City/Palace match, it should! However, after taking the lead (in this hypothetical scenario), Palace must be less passive when out of possession than last month.
If they can maintain appropriate aggression, intensity, and communication throughout the match – regardless of game state – they will give themselves a strong chance to lift their first ever (major) trophy.
If that happens, you may hear us celebrating from Florida all the way over in SE25!
One match. One Result. That’s all we need. Up the Palace!
*Please note that the views and opinions expressed in this article are those of Pat Rosanio, and do not necessarily reflect the views and opinions of Crystal Palace F.C.
For more tactical analysis, follow Tampa Palace on BlueSky.
Crystal Palace v Manchester City